***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.3 16.6 1.0 65.1 63.8 11.0 11.7 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 12.8 12.8 16.4 1.1 69.2 64.4 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.8 16.7 0.9 65.5 63.4 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.0 13.9 0.8 61.6 62.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.8 13.5 0.5 57.3 57.0 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.3 11.8 0.4 54.4 56.7 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.0 16.6 1.1 70.6 65.1 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.4 11.5 0.4 55.2 57.1 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.1 13.6 0.4 55.5 55.6 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.3 54.0 55.5 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.0 13.0 0.4 56.4 57.1 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.4 12.1 0.4 55.3 57.3 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.1 11.4 0.1 51.2 52.2 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.7 13.8 0.5 54.1 56.8 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.3 15.3 1.0 66.6 65.3 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.5 12.4 0.4 54.8 55.8 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.5 13.3 16.1 1.0 67.7 63.0 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.6 11.3 0.3 51.9 55.2 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 12.7 13.4 16.3 1.0 67.2 63.6 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.0 9.2 0.1 51.0 52.5 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 15.2 0.6 57.5 57.7 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.7 16.0 1.0 65.6 63.0 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.5 16.1 0.8 65.0 61.9 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.7 13.5 0.5 55.8 58.0 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 14.9 0.7 60.4 59.7 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.5 11.6 0.4 56.5 57.2 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.0 15.7 0.9 62.6 61.6 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.1 14.2 0.8 62.3 62.4 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.3 10.7 0.2 50.7 53.4 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 13.0 13.5 16.7 1.2 70.5 65.5 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------