***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.5 17.3 0.6 64.7 59.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.3 16.8 0.5 62.8 58.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.2 16.2 17.2 0.4 61.2 57.1 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.7 11.7 14.6 0.5 61.8 58.1 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.9 12.7 14.6 0.1 54.5 53.5 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.0 12.5 0.3 54.8 55.9 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.7 17.2 0.6 65.3 59.6 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 6.7 12.0 -0.2 46.8 50.2 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.7 14.5 0.1 51.9 53.4 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 12.1 13.2 12.9 -0.1 48.3 51.7 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 11.9 13.1 14.1 0.1 51.8 53.7 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.7 13.0 -0.1 50.4 51.9 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 11.5 12.7 12.8 0.0 49.7 53.1 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 12.7 14.1 14.3 0.0 47.1 51.5 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.0 16.6 0.9 71.5 65.4 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.1 14.6 13.6 0.1 56.2 54.5 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.9 16.6 0.5 63.3 58.3 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.6 12.1 -0.2 45.9 49.9 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.4 16.8 0.4 61.6 57.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 7.6 10.1 -0.4 41.4 46.2 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 11.9 13.6 15.9 0.1 54.6 53.8 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.9 16.6 0.4 61.5 57.2 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.7 16.6 0.3 59.6 56.5 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.4 14.3 0.0 50.2 52.9 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.4 14.4 15.9 0.3 60.9 56.4 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 11.6 13.1 12.3 -0.1 49.9 51.5 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.6 16.5 0.5 62.7 57.8 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.5 15.0 0.5 63.8 59.6 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.6 11.4 -0.3 42.8 48.3 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.6 17.2 0.6 64.3 59.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------