***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 16.0 17.4 20.1 2.1 88.1 85.6 14.4 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 16.4 17.4 19.6 2.0 86.4 83.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 18.8 19.1 19.8 1.7 83.7 81.2 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.6 16.8 0.9 73.1 71.1 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.1 17.1 0.8 71.2 69.7 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 12.8 12.8 13.7 0.1 52.2 53.0 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 16.9 17.7 20.1 2.2 88.0 86.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.3 8.8 14.1 0.5 62.0 62.1 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.2 15.9 17.2 1.0 73.7 73.3 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.1 15.3 0.8 68.8 68.7 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 14.7 14.6 16.5 0.8 67.2 67.5 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 12.3 12.9 15.3 0.5 63.1 63.2 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 13.6 13.7 14.9 0.4 56.4 57.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.2 15.8 16.8 0.9 72.9 71.6 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.6 16.7 18.8 1.4 77.8 77.5 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.3 15.7 0.5 59.0 59.6 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 17.3 17.9 19.6 2.2 87.3 85.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.6 64.5 64.3 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 16.7 17.3 19.5 1.8 85.4 82.6 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 8.8 9.1 12.4 0.3 57.1 57.3 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.2 15.3 18.3 1.1 76.8 74.4 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 15.7 16.4 19.7 2.1 86.2 84.8 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 15.8 16.3 19.4 1.7 84.7 81.8 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 15.7 15.4 16.8 0.9 71.9 71.3 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 1.2 78.7 75.7 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 13.9 13.8 13.8 0.1 49.7 51.1 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 16.6 17.0 19.1 1.6 83.4 80.3 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.9 13.8 17.0 0.9 69.3 68.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 12.6 13.5 13.6 0.5 62.9 62.5 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 17.1 17.9 20.1 2.1 87.4 84.9 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------