***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.9 57.4 28.7 28.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 22.5 20.2 19.9 56.5 24.1 27.9 29.1 45.5 61.6 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 23.9 21.8 18.9 53.4 26.0 25.4 30.5 56.1 66.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 24.8 26.3 18.6 53.5 25.7 24.9 43.3 58.0 72.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 19.8 16.6 19.9 54.5 27.3 25.2 29.7 45.6 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 22.0 17.7 21.1 48.7 15.5 22.0 22.9 38.7 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 23.8 24.7 20.7 59.1 26.6 29.0 28.3 37.3 53.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 42.2 37.5 21.2 47.1 16.9 20.3 56.5 69.6 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 27.0 24.3 20.7 53.1 23.9 23.4 33.0 43.3 60.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 26.6 22.9 22.1 47.9 16.8 20.3 29.1 45.2 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 21.8 20.9 18.2 51.4 25.0 23.2 30.3 45.5 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 21.9 23.0 17.0 48.5 22.1 22.5 26.9 36.6 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 24.1 19.6 18.2 48.3 16.8 22.1 36.7 43.6 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 30.5 24.1 24.5 50.7 18.0 22.9 39.6 57.8 81.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 8.7 13.0 14.2 48.3 24.6 25.0 16.4 22.0 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 21.6 20.6 17.8 50.7 22.6 23.3 29.4 44.7 55.3 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 26.8 32.2 21.3 60.1 28.9 29.8 35.3 46.8 55.5 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 30.4 24.9 25.1 46.1 13.2 18.8 35.9 52.5 74.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 26.2 22.1 19.3 53.8 22.0 26.5 28.6 49.7 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 38.6 33.2 29.3 47.7 16.6 18.9 48.7 60.8 81.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 16.4 21.9 19.4 56.5 27.7 25.5 26.2 45.2 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 30.7 31.1 20.7 55.2 25.6 28.2 38.6 51.5 61.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 22.8 18.7 19.6 51.7 20.3 24.8 28.0 48.8 66.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 30.4 23.4 22.4 48.1 14.6 20.7 36.0 52.0 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 17.3 29.7 21.5 57.4 29.7 26.7 35.4 49.8 60.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 17.6 14.3 15.1 44.1 16.9 21.9 25.9 30.7 42.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 22.5 26.8 21.6 57.7 28.2 27.8 35.8 50.3 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 16.1 20.5 16.9 52.4 25.7 25.6 23.8 36.5 48.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 48.3 38.5 27.2 46.9 13.9 18.6 51.7 90.1 109.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 26.6 24.1 19.4 55.8 24.3 27.4 27.5 44.0 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------