***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 60.5 59.1 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.5 4.3 55.2 50.3 36.8 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 1.7 7.4 4.3 55.4 55.2 33.0 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 12.4 4.4 53.2 54.8 33.5 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.5 4.7 55.5 54.2 33.2 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 1.1 3.5 4.2 38.8 47.7 28.7 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.2 4.6 58.1 53.2 38.1 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.7 17.4 6.1 57.0 50.4 30.3 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.3 4.8 54.9 52.8 30.8 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.3 11.9 5.8 54.3 50.0 30.0 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.1 7.3 4.6 54.2 54.2 29.9 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.9 4.5 53.6 53.6 31.3 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.4 3.9 4.0 42.4 49.7 28.2 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.4 5.5 51.8 46.2 31.5 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.1 3.2 3.3 48.2 53.4 33.9 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.6 4.0 46.7 52.4 29.5 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.9 4.5 57.7 52.0 38.2 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 9.3 6.8 53.8 47.3 29.2 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.4 4.2 53.3 50.4 35.4 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 6.2 13.9 8.9 59.7 50.1 29.6 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.7 4.5 58.3 55.4 32.4 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.4 4.8 59.8 54.0 38.5 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.6 9.1 4.2 53.0 52.2 33.8 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.9 5.4 52.4 48.3 30.2 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.7 5.2 61.8 56.1 34.2 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 0.7 2.0 3.6 40.1 47.6 28.9 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.4 12.9 5.3 63.1 58.3 35.5 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.0 3.7 47.4 53.3 32.7 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.4 19.0 7.6 56.5 48.8 29.9 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.6 4.3 55.4 53.0 36.0 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------