***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 101.1 70.8 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 12.1 8.1 93.0 70.8 48.8 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.0 12.9 8.6 96.9 69.7 48.6 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 20.9 8.7 102.8 68.2 45.4 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.5 18.5 9.8 110.2 69.9 47.9 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.1 10.4 88.1 63.5 42.8 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.1 16.9 8.1 100.3 71.9 49.3 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.0 26.7 10.8 95.0 63.2 44.2 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.6 17.6 10.2 105.8 66.9 46.1 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 12.4 11.0 93.8 62.9 44.5 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.3 18.5 9.5 107.9 68.4 45.3 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 18.4 9.0 105.4 67.4 45.0 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.8 18.7 9.6 100.0 64.5 44.1 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.0 11.0 87.0 61.3 45.8 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.9 6.6 6.6 83.7 66.5 43.8 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 17.7 9.4 106.0 67.3 44.8 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.7 13.4 7.6 90.2 70.4 50.5 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 16.5 12.1 84.6 60.4 43.9 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 13.8 8.0 87.8 67.4 48.5 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.2 20.7 14.4 87.7 62.4 44.7 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.4 13.8 9.2 109.8 72.1 48.0 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.5 6.9 70.8 64.2 47.8 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.3 8.7 8.5 84.8 64.3 47.8 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.3 12.1 10.5 86.8 60.9 45.2 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.0 14.5 9.2 102.6 71.8 47.7 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.9 7.9 95.7 62.5 42.9 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.8 10.1 8.8 98.6 71.3 49.7 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.0 11.7 8.2 99.1 66.8 45.6 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 26.1 13.2 85.2 61.1 44.0 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 13.0 8.2 95.9 71.3 49.0 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------