***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 75.3 62.5 48.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.7 7.0 78.0 58.6 47.5 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.5 15.6 5.6 68.4 57.6 43.9 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.4 18.5 5.2 63.0 63.5 40.2 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.3 13.0 5.1 61.6 63.4 40.9 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.9 9.3 6.3 59.3 58.1 36.0 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.1 7.5 80.3 61.3 48.7 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.6 19.4 4.1 44.1 53.8 36.6 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.6 10.7 5.4 61.6 56.8 37.2 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.8 12.7 5.0 51.4 53.7 36.5 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.0 15.7 3.9 51.7 62.5 36.7 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.6 13.3 3.3 45.8 58.9 39.3 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.2 4.5 51.7 56.3 35.4 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.5 14.4 7.6 66.1 52.7 41.8 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 0.9 8.0 4.1 60.3 66.2 37.7 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.1 14.7 4.2 54.1 60.8 35.2 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 13.5 8.4 87.0 59.4 49.2 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.7 10.2 5.9 49.3 46.8 35.9 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.0 6.5 75.9 58.2 46.7 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.3 11.5 5.7 40.1 40.3 32.3 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.1 7.7 5.4 68.4 61.2 41.0 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.2 14.6 8.1 84.7 58.9 48.6 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.1 12.1 6.3 72.8 55.9 44.9 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.9 9.4 6.2 58.8 50.3 38.5 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.9 15.3 6.8 69.3 62.4 43.4 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.5 11.7 3.5 48.7 59.2 37.4 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.4 14.1 7.2 74.5 63.1 46.8 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.5 14.3 4.7 64.7 66.4 39.5 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 5.8 13.7 6.1 46.6 42.7 33.7 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.5 6.4 74.2 58.9 47.6 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------