***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 12.8 8.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.6 0.0 0.6 5.8 9.3 7.3 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 11.9 9.3 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.8 12.8 8.0 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.3 13.3 11.1 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 12.9 10.0 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.5 5.1 7.9 7.9 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.1 11.7 8.2 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 11.5 9.1 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 12.3 9.1 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 12.9 10.6 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 12.8 10.1 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 11.3 9.6 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.7 5.4 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 9.7 8.8 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 11.4 10.1 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.0 0.8 8.4 12.1 10.2 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 9.2 7.6 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 0.3 0.0 0.6 5.6 11.4 7.6 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.0 6.2 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 11.5 9.3 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 0.7 0.0 0.9 9.3 15.4 10.2 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.7 15.1 7.7 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 9.8 7.5 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 10.4 7.6 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.9 14.2 11.1 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.8 10.6 7.5 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 10.6 9.0 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.1 9.3 7.0 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.9 10.7 8.8 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------