***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 0.0 26.5 2.3 80.1 69.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 26.9 28.0 26.6 2.3 82.4 69.0 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 26.8 27.5 26.7 2.5 82.1 70.4 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 19.6 20.4 25.0 2.1 80.1 68.7 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 27.1 27.6 25.1 2.3 80.0 70.0 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 25.8 26.6 23.4 2.6 82.9 72.9 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.4 26.3 2.1 81.7 68.4 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.5 23.7 2.6 83.3 71.7 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 26.9 27.3 25.5 2.5 80.5 70.8 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 26.3 27.1 24.3 2.7 82.5 71.8 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 26.8 27.3 24.9 2.6 82.5 71.7 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 26.0 26.7 24.8 2.6 83.5 71.9 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 27.0 27.5 24.5 2.7 82.4 72.5 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 26.7 27.6 25.3 2.8 85.5 72.4 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 27.1 27.7 25.6 2.1 83.0 69.8 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 27.6 28.1 24.8 2.6 81.1 71.5 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.0 27.2 26.1 2.2 83.3 69.2 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 25.4 26.4 23.6 2.8 84.3 72.4 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 26.6 27.5 26.8 2.5 84.2 70.1 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 21.6 22.0 21.4 2.6 83.2 71.1 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 26.8 27.4 26.1 2.3 79.6 69.6 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.6 28.1 26.3 2.5 84.6 70.6 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 26.5 27.9 26.8 2.8 85.8 71.9 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 26.0 27.2 25.2 2.8 84.7 72.5 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 26.7 27.3 25.1 2.2 79.9 69.5 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 26.8 27.4 24.3 2.4 82.7 71.0 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 26.8 27.5 25.7 2.2 79.5 69.3 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.3 25.3 2.1 80.3 69.0 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 20.9 21.8 22.6 2.7 84.2 72.1 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.4 26.7 2.3 81.3 69.1 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------