***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 28.0 2.4 77.3 72.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.4 27.9 2.3 74.1 70.7 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 26.2 27.4 28.1 2.5 79.7 72.8 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.8 26.6 2.3 76.2 73.2 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 26.7 27.8 26.6 2.5 78.1 73.8 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 25.5 28.1 25.0 3.0 87.7 79.0 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.8 27.1 27.7 2.2 73.9 70.4 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 15.0 16.6 25.2 2.9 84.7 75.9 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.4 27.4 26.9 2.6 78.5 74.2 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 25.7 27.2 25.7 2.8 82.7 75.4 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 26.6 28.0 26.5 2.9 82.5 76.4 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 25.3 27.9 26.3 2.9 84.8 76.3 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 26.2 28.8 26.0 3.0 85.8 77.3 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.3 26.3 2.7 80.2 73.1 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.3 27.2 2.5 78.6 74.6 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 27.1 28.6 26.3 2.9 82.9 76.7 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.3 27.3 2.2 74.4 69.6 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 25.6 26.9 24.9 2.8 84.6 74.8 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 26.2 27.1 28.0 2.5 76.7 71.6 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 21.6 23.4 22.8 2.7 85.0 74.5 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 26.5 27.5 27.5 2.4 75.7 72.6 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.9 27.4 2.3 73.2 70.3 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 26.6 28.0 27.9 2.7 81.4 73.0 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 26.2 27.5 26.4 2.8 82.8 74.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.6 26.6 2.4 76.5 72.9 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 26.2 27.5 25.9 2.7 81.6 75.8 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 26.1 27.4 27.2 2.4 77.9 72.5 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 26.5 27.2 26.9 2.4 77.7 74.0 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 20.8 22.4 23.8 2.7 85.2 74.2 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.9 28.1 2.4 75.4 71.5 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------