***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 30.3 3.5 88.9 82.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 28.2 29.7 30.4 3.6 89.5 81.7 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 27.9 30.3 30.7 3.9 90.9 84.3 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 21.3 23.9 29.1 3.5 93.9 85.1 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 28.6 31.6 29.2 3.9 94.9 86.1 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 28.2 30.6 27.7 4.4 96.2 91.2 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 27.6 29.3 30.0 3.4 89.2 80.8 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 17.9 19.5 28.2 4.6 95.7 89.8 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 28.2 30.8 29.5 4.0 95.0 86.2 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 28.3 31.1 28.6 4.4 95.5 88.2 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 28.7 32.9 29.3 4.4 95.9 89.5 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 28.9 31.2 29.3 4.7 95.8 90.7 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 29.6 32.6 28.9 4.6 95.9 90.7 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 28.5 30.5 29.4 4.4 94.2 86.2 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 28.6 31.0 29.6 3.6 94.6 86.4 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 30.1 32.7 29.2 4.4 95.4 90.0 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 27.6 29.1 29.8 3.5 90.0 80.6 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 27.3 30.1 27.9 4.5 95.4 87.7 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 28.1 29.8 30.7 3.9 90.2 83.1 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 24.1 25.4 25.9 4.5 95.3 88.1 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 28.0 30.6 30.0 3.7 90.2 83.7 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 27.9 29.7 30.0 3.7 90.1 81.6 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 27.8 30.2 30.8 4.3 91.6 85.1 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 27.7 30.5 29.4 4.4 94.3 86.9 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 28.2 30.2 29.0 3.5 91.6 83.3 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 29.1 31.5 28.7 4.2 95.8 89.3 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 27.9 29.6 29.4 3.5 90.2 82.2 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 29.0 31.5 29.5 3.7 94.6 86.4 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 23.0 25.9 26.9 4.6 95.9 87.6 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 27.9 29.3 30.6 3.7 89.9 82.3 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------