***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 34.6 6.1 96.1 95.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 30.6 34.1 35.3 6.8 96.7 96.3 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 31.0 33.9 35.2 6.7 96.7 96.1 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 24.9 27.4 32.1 5.5 95.7 94.0 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 31.7 35.2 33.2 6.1 96.1 95.5 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 31.2 33.0 30.0 5.4 95.9 94.3 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 30.1 33.7 34.7 6.3 96.2 95.8 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 20.1 22.2 31.5 6.6 96.3 96.6 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.4 34.2 6.6 96.6 96.5 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.3 32.7 6.9 96.7 96.8 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.5 33.0 6.4 96.2 96.0 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 31.5 33.2 32.4 6.4 96.2 96.2 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 32.8 34.3 32.4 6.3 96.1 96.1 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 30.0 34.3 34.7 7.8 97.5 97.3 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 32.1 34.5 33.4 5.1 95.8 93.2 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 33.0 35.3 32.7 6.1 96.2 95.8 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 29.6 33.3 34.9 6.9 97.1 96.8 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 29.7 33.7 32.2 7.5 97.3 97.5 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 30.2 33.8 35.8 7.3 97.1 96.8 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 26.8 29.3 29.8 6.9 96.9 97.6 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 31.3 34.3 34.4 6.0 96.0 95.2 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 30.1 33.8 35.2 7.3 97.5 97.1 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 30.3 33.7 36.1 7.9 97.5 97.4 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.2 34.3 34.1 7.5 97.3 97.2 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 31.0 34.7 32.9 5.5 95.8 94.5 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 32.0 34.1 31.4 5.7 95.9 95.2 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 30.6 33.6 33.5 5.7 95.9 95.0 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 32.3 35.2 32.6 5.3 95.7 93.3 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 25.8 29.8 31.4 7.5 97.9 97.9 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 30.5 34.0 35.2 6.6 96.4 95.9 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------