***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 18.0 2.0 93.7 87.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 13.6 15.1 17.9 2.0 96.1 86.7 12.7 12.9 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 15.9 17.4 18.0 2.1 96.7 89.5 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 11.7 12.6 15.7 1.6 90.7 85.2 10.0 10.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 12.2 12.8 15.6 1.7 92.5 87.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 11.5 12.1 13.8 1.7 92.2 87.5 10.4 10.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 13.5 14.6 17.9 1.9 93.0 86.1 13.0 13.3 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 7.1 8.5 13.9 1.9 96.9 89.4 6.2 6.4 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 13.5 14.1 16.0 1.8 94.1 88.5 12.6 13.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 13.2 14.2 14.4 1.8 95.5 88.6 12.3 12.9 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 13.0 13.9 15.2 1.8 95.0 88.9 11.9 12.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 11.4 12.2 14.8 1.9 96.8 90.4 10.3 10.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 12.5 13.3 14.1 1.7 96.0 88.6 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 13.9 15.6 16.2 2.1 98.1 91.3 13.1 13.3 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 14.4 15.3 16.7 1.6 91.4 85.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 14.0 14.5 14.9 1.8 93.5 88.8 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 14.0 15.2 17.3 1.8 95.0 86.2 13.2 13.4 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 11.7 13.1 13.6 1.8 95.7 88.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 13.5 15.0 18.0 2.2 97.5 89.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.0 12.1 1.7 95.8 86.3 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 13.0 13.6 17.1 1.8 92.9 86.6 12.3 12.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 13.0 14.5 17.5 2.0 97.1 88.5 12.2 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 13.0 14.5 18.0 2.5 98.3 93.3 12.2 12.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 13.6 15.2 15.9 2.1 97.6 91.1 12.4 12.7 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 13.4 14.3 16.5 1.8 92.9 86.7 12.5 12.9 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 12.5 13.5 14.3 1.8 95.4 88.4 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 14.0 14.8 17.2 1.8 93.2 86.2 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 12.4 12.9 16.1 1.5 89.5 84.4 10.9 11.6 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 11.4 12.5 13.1 1.8 96.9 88.3 9.7 10.4 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 13.8 14.9 18.2 2.0 95.3 87.1 13.1 13.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------