***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 16.9 1.7 78.2 69.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.1 16.6 1.4 76.0 67.2 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.1 16.1 16.7 1.7 80.8 70.2 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.4 14.7 1.3 71.6 67.8 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.7 12.0 14.4 1.4 75.9 69.0 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.4 12.8 1.4 75.5 70.3 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.2 16.6 1.4 76.2 66.8 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.2 12.8 1.6 76.3 70.9 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.2 14.9 1.7 79.9 71.2 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.9 13.2 1.5 76.6 70.3 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.5 14.1 1.6 77.8 71.4 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.1 13.7 1.7 77.9 72.7 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.9 13.0 1.4 74.3 71.2 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.9 14.8 1.5 74.8 68.6 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.8 15.7 1.5 79.4 71.7 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.2 13.8 1.5 75.7 71.1 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.8 15.9 1.1 74.0 63.7 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.6 12.1 12.5 1.5 75.9 69.1 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.6 16.6 1.6 78.1 68.9 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.0 8.4 11.0 1.4 75.0 68.6 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.2 15.9 1.6 77.8 70.0 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.8 15.9 1.3 74.3 65.4 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 12.4 13.3 16.5 1.7 81.3 71.1 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.3 14.6 1.6 78.3 69.9 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.8 15.3 1.6 75.7 70.1 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 11.7 12.0 13.2 1.4 77.7 71.3 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.4 16.1 1.6 76.2 69.6 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.7 15.1 1.3 74.3 69.0 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.5 11.0 12.0 1.5 76.5 69.1 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.7 16.9 1.6 77.6 68.6 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------