***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 2.5 94.8 83.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 14.6 16.8 18.8 2.3 93.3 80.7 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 17.4 18.6 19.0 2.6 95.9 85.5 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 13.0 14.0 16.6 1.8 88.3 78.3 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 13.9 14.5 16.5 2.0 90.3 81.3 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 13.0 13.8 14.9 2.0 89.8 82.5 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 14.9 16.8 18.8 2.2 93.0 80.0 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.6 15.0 2.3 90.7 83.1 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 15.1 16.0 17.1 2.3 92.3 83.9 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 14.8 15.7 15.4 2.2 91.4 83.2 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 14.7 15.3 16.3 2.3 91.8 84.5 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 12.8 14.0 15.9 2.4 92.2 85.7 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.0 15.0 15.1 2.1 89.6 84.0 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 15.4 16.8 17.2 2.7 95.0 87.1 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.9 17.7 2.1 91.7 79.9 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 15.3 16.6 15.9 2.1 90.8 83.9 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 15.0 16.6 18.0 1.9 89.3 76.8 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 13.1 13.8 14.7 2.3 92.2 84.3 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 14.9 16.5 18.9 2.5 94.7 83.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 9.2 10.5 13.1 2.0 89.5 79.8 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 14.6 15.7 18.1 2.3 93.2 83.1 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 14.1 15.2 18.1 2.1 88.8 79.6 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 14.5 16.0 18.9 2.9 96.0 87.3 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 15.1 16.3 17.0 2.6 94.9 87.5 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 14.8 16.0 17.5 2.3 92.9 82.2 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 13.8 14.1 15.5 2.2 88.4 83.6 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 15.4 16.8 18.2 2.4 94.3 82.6 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 13.9 14.7 17.0 1.9 88.7 78.9 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 12.7 13.4 14.1 2.2 92.0 83.1 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 15.1 17.3 19.1 2.4 95.5 82.4 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------