***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 59.1 53.4 35.0 88.9 53.0 47.2 34.1 53.1 55.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 51.3 52.4 36.0 96.7 57.9 50.5 28.9 45.5 58.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 62.0 56.9 37.4 94.1 55.2 47.6 33.9 56.4 66.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 35.4 59.1 33.2 82.2 53.2 45.1 48.0 56.9 70.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 29.3 51.8 34.3 92.2 59.6 47.6 26.8 46.9 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 27.7 44.5 35.5 84.7 51.7 44.7 26.1 43.7 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 46.2 43.8 35.3 96.7 56.9 51.2 29.2 38.1 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 52.7 81.2 40.9 94.0 57.6 48.0 52.2 67.5 91.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 50.2 45.8 35.3 89.0 53.8 45.1 33.0 45.1 61.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 52.2 64.8 41.9 91.9 55.0 46.8 27.0 44.3 70.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 51.0 50.5 34.4 95.1 60.8 49.2 29.4 45.5 60.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 46.1 46.6 33.0 94.4 60.5 47.9 27.1 36.5 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 30.3 48.2 33.4 93.7 58.6 48.8 36.7 44.8 54.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 69.6 71.3 47.6 92.1 55.8 46.6 41.5 59.3 83.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.8 32.6 27.3 75.9 51.1 43.0 18.7 28.5 45.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 31.3 54.2 32.3 90.3 58.3 48.0 31.4 48.2 60.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 51.3 51.2 38.4 101.0 58.0 52.7 41.2 46.2 55.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 37.4 52.4 48.0 92.5 52.8 46.6 32.9 49.1 74.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 53.7 61.1 37.4 97.8 58.4 49.9 29.5 49.6 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 44.1 63.5 50.1 94.9 54.8 49.8 46.4 55.8 80.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 56.5 48.7 35.3 89.2 52.7 45.4 27.0 48.2 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 60.6 58.8 40.9 102.3 59.5 52.2 38.6 53.3 65.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 55.1 56.9 39.7 99.3 57.9 49.1 29.0 50.3 66.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 40.7 57.2 44.9 95.3 54.3 46.5 38.9 56.3 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 58.6 51.3 36.2 86.5 50.7 46.1 37.7 51.2 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 20.2 38.4 30.7 95.4 58.3 48.3 24.5 30.6 44.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 58.1 52.2 36.6 87.8 52.3 46.6 35.8 51.3 61.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.4 39.1 30.5 80.0 53.4 44.2 24.2 36.5 47.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 64.5 98.5 51.5 96.0 54.2 49.0 53.1 89.9 108.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 47.5 46.9 35.8 95.3 58.0 49.5 27.0 44.0 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------