***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.5 24.1 10.7 93.6 65.3 51.9 1.5 13.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.3 21.8 10.3 107.9 68.3 54.1 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 24.6 12.0 110.5 67.9 51.9 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 19.0 10.4 91.1 68.1 50.3 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.3 15.5 11.3 105.6 66.2 49.7 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.4 11.4 91.9 63.4 49.5 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.7 16.3 10.1 101.6 66.5 53.3 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.6 23.7 12.2 105.7 65.2 49.9 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.3 18.7 12.5 112.1 66.3 51.0 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.7 13.3 107.3 65.3 49.3 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.7 16.5 10.6 104.8 67.3 49.4 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 13.8 9.8 102.5 66.1 50.2 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.6 10.1 94.6 66.3 49.8 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 23.2 13.8 105.1 64.4 49.9 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.8 13.2 8.7 86.2 69.1 50.7 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.7 9.9 94.7 66.7 49.1 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.0 22.4 10.1 101.7 66.6 52.0 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 18.3 15.0 109.6 65.5 49.2 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 22.0 10.5 108.5 67.8 53.5 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 23.8 15.5 111.2 64.5 51.3 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 24.4 12.2 108.3 69.2 50.8 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.0 21.5 10.6 103.0 65.7 52.3 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.2 20.0 10.6 104.6 66.4 50.4 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 23.2 14.0 113.9 67.5 50.6 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.6 24.4 10.7 88.8 67.0 49.8 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.8 8.6 10.0 106.1 69.4 52.4 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 24.6 10.7 89.3 64.7 50.7 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.6 10.1 92.8 68.6 51.0 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.2 30.5 15.1 107.2 64.3 49.4 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.5 10.8 108.1 67.9 54.5 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------