***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 8.4 7.8 90.2 64.8 48.7 0.0 1.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.9 6.7 74.8 57.9 49.5 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.5 8.3 94.0 65.5 48.4 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.3 21.9 8.3 90.3 69.1 46.0 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.3 16.9 7.9 99.3 68.2 46.6 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.4 7.8 80.1 59.9 43.5 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.0 6.1 71.7 57.2 49.9 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.4 26.9 9.1 99.1 65.8 49.1 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.4 17.6 8.9 109.1 69.9 48.8 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 20.2 10.2 107.6 68.1 50.7 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.6 18.7 7.5 101.4 70.1 48.9 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 18.3 6.5 85.1 64.8 46.5 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.2 17.3 6.6 78.7 61.3 45.2 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.3 12.4 102.3 63.0 50.0 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 5.9 6.4 80.9 68.6 47.0 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.5 6.8 85.0 65.4 46.8 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.7 7.1 76.6 59.3 49.8 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.1 20.5 12.4 107.8 68.2 50.4 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.2 7.5 83.7 60.2 49.6 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 21.9 12.2 102.1 65.3 48.0 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.7 13.2 8.2 101.4 70.3 47.5 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.7 8.6 88.6 61.4 51.6 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.0 10.0 8.6 96.1 63.4 50.1 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.4 16.0 11.6 107.9 67.5 50.9 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.8 8.0 88.1 65.8 46.7 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.9 5.5 70.3 60.7 44.4 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 8.3 7.7 83.5 63.2 47.3 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 13.4 7.2 84.4 67.7 46.6 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 27.6 13.1 107.2 65.9 49.4 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.0 6.9 77.7 59.7 49.3 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------