***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.5 14.6 10.6 105.4 69.6 51.3 6.8 8.5 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 18.9 11.2 107.7 69.8 51.7 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.2 21.5 12.1 116.5 71.1 50.7 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 20.9 10.3 103.1 70.4 51.7 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.2 25.0 11.3 118.7 72.9 47.7 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.5 18.5 11.9 116.7 69.1 51.2 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 13.2 11.0 115.2 72.0 53.3 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.0 44.1 14.6 144.8 76.7 53.6 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.2 10.7 100.6 68.3 47.1 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.0 26.0 13.8 127.8 73.5 52.3 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.3 22.2 12.5 134.4 75.6 50.7 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.5 28.0 13.3 159.6 79.3 52.9 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 36.2 13.5 164.1 79.6 52.3 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.8 19.8 14.4 110.0 69.7 51.0 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.1 7.2 8.7 95.0 70.7 50.2 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.6 26.9 11.9 138.6 75.6 51.4 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.3 11.2 105.7 68.8 53.2 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.6 14.3 113.7 69.6 51.4 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 15.1 12.0 114.9 71.2 52.1 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.3 19.4 14.7 118.9 69.6 53.3 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.9 19.9 11.1 107.8 69.9 48.2 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 18.0 11.9 108.0 68.8 51.2 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 24.1 13.2 126.6 72.9 52.6 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.0 25.3 14.0 114.5 70.3 50.9 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.9 19.0 11.3 104.1 70.4 47.6 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.7 26.2 12.4 165.7 78.9 56.3 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.7 11.3 104.1 69.9 50.2 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.2 17.1 9.7 104.3 71.2 52.5 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 33.4 15.7 119.9 71.9 53.4 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.5 11.3 113.5 71.8 52.6 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------