***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.8 5.9 63.9 57.8 44.2 0.1 2.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 11.7 7.8 94.0 68.8 50.9 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.0 5.0 53.0 54.0 42.7 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.0 5.5 4.2 43.0 51.2 38.3 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.4 3.8 42.2 50.0 39.4 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 0.8 2.3 4.4 46.4 50.3 37.0 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.8 12.0 8.2 95.5 67.7 51.1 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.2 5.1 39.8 46.8 37.4 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.7 2.1 3.2 33.0 46.3 37.1 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 2.5 4.6 35.3 45.9 37.1 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.6 2.3 3.8 40.5 53.0 38.1 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.7 3.4 36.1 50.0 36.9 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.9 4.0 3.2 38.3 54.5 39.2 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.5 8.0 7.0 52.9 50.0 42.8 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 0.3 1.3 3.5 39.1 55.9 35.0 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.8 3.7 42.5 56.5 37.9 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.2 17.5 10.0 121.7 73.3 55.6 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.6 3.8 6.3 43.9 47.4 39.6 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 11.2 7.4 82.0 65.8 49.2 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.2 7.6 52.1 51.3 41.4 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.2 3.3 3.8 38.6 49.5 39.8 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 17.6 9.8 111.8 71.0 55.1 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.7 7.4 69.9 61.2 47.2 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.3 4.8 5.4 45.0 48.1 40.4 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.2 6.2 63.3 56.9 42.8 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.2 4.3 2.9 38.3 55.2 39.0 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.8 6.8 71.9 58.8 44.3 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 0.3 1.5 3.5 37.1 52.7 35.2 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 9.2 7.6 53.6 50.3 42.6 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.7 6.8 78.3 65.0 48.1 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------