***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 26.3 27.2 27.9 0.7 63.6 60.3 25.3 26.0 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.7 27.4 0.2 55.4 52.7 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.4 28.0 0.5 59.0 56.9 25.5 26.3 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 20.4 20.7 26.2 1.6 77.3 70.8 18.5 19.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.5 26.4 0.6 62.2 57.8 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.7 24.7 1.3 75.0 66.7 24.9 25.4 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.1 27.2 0.1 55.6 51.7 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.7 24.9 0.7 61.7 58.1 14.4 15.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.5 27.0 26.9 0.8 66.2 60.2 25.6 26.4 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.8 25.6 1.0 68.2 62.4 25.1 25.9 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.0 26.4 0.3 54.7 53.2 25.4 26.6 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.2 26.1 0.4 56.6 54.2 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.7 25.9 0.5 60.0 55.6 25.8 26.7 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.0 25.6 -0.1 48.7 49.3 25.5 26.1 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 27.7 27.7 28.0 1.4 74.5 68.5 26.2 27.0 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.4 26.3 0.7 62.4 57.8 26.5 27.6 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.0 26.7 -0.1 49.8 48.8 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.9 24.6 0.8 65.5 60.3 24.4 25.3 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.0 27.5 0.2 53.6 52.2 25.3 26.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.3 22.5 0.6 62.4 57.9 20.4 21.4 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.8 27.5 0.7 63.1 58.8 25.5 26.4 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.5 26.5 -0.2 47.0 47.2 25.0 25.7 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.6 27.4 -0.1 48.5 49.0 25.2 25.7 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.9 26.2 0.4 59.8 56.5 25.2 25.6 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 26.5 27.1 26.5 0.8 65.6 61.4 25.4 26.2 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.6 27.2 25.9 0.7 62.9 57.8 25.7 26.2 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.7 27.1 0.8 66.1 61.6 25.3 25.8 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 27.9 28.2 27.0 1.5 76.8 69.8 26.3 27.2 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.1 23.6 0.5 61.2 56.9 20.0 20.9 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.5 27.6 0.3 58.0 54.7 25.3 25.9 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------