***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.2 25.6 0.3 53.7 52.8 23.4 24.6 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.2 25.4 0.1 53.0 51.7 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.2 26.0 0.3 54.0 53.1 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.7 24.2 1.0 61.5 58.7 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.9 24.3 0.4 52.8 53.5 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.7 22.3 0.8 58.0 56.3 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.7 25.3 0.1 50.6 51.2 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 22.9 0.4 52.0 52.9 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.5 24.6 0.5 55.3 54.9 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.7 23.6 0.6 55.6 55.4 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.3 24.2 0.2 50.7 52.0 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.6 24.1 0.2 50.3 51.5 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.7 23.3 0.3 50.0 52.2 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.8 23.7 -0.1 50.7 50.4 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.7 25.3 1.1 63.8 59.2 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.4 24.0 0.5 53.1 53.8 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.2 24.9 0.0 52.6 50.8 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.4 22.8 0.5 55.7 54.4 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.7 25.6 0.1 52.4 51.5 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 18.5 20.7 20.4 0.3 52.3 52.3 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.8 25.2 0.4 55.0 53.3 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.9 24.8 -0.1 52.3 50.2 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.4 25.6 -0.1 50.7 50.4 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.0 24.1 0.3 54.1 53.2 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.7 24.1 0.5 57.2 54.5 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.1 23.8 0.4 51.9 53.3 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.4 24.8 0.4 55.3 53.9 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.0 26.1 24.7 1.1 63.0 59.1 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 19.3 21.7 0.3 52.9 52.8 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.6 25.5 0.2 52.2 52.1 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------