***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 25.7 26.1 27.8 1.3 66.4 62.2 22.3 23.8 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.8 27.3 0.9 61.5 58.9 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.7 28.1 1.3 64.2 61.9 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.7 19.3 26.5 2.1 75.4 69.4 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.1 26.1 26.4 1.4 64.0 63.1 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 24.9 25.5 24.6 1.9 76.4 68.3 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.6 25.1 27.2 0.8 61.9 58.1 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.5 25.2 1.4 65.3 62.4 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.8 26.2 26.9 1.7 67.3 65.1 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 25.8 25.6 25.8 1.8 68.7 65.3 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.9 25.8 26.4 1.2 63.2 61.3 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.9 26.4 1.2 63.5 60.8 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.5 26.1 25.6 1.4 65.8 62.8 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.2 25.6 0.8 61.1 58.3 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 26.4 27.3 27.5 2.1 75.5 69.3 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 26.7 27.0 26.3 1.5 67.2 64.3 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.4 26.7 0.7 59.9 56.8 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.9 25.0 1.6 68.4 64.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.3 27.5 0.9 60.8 58.9 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.6 22.5 1.3 64.2 61.5 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.8 26.0 27.4 1.4 65.2 63.1 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.0 26.7 0.7 59.4 56.8 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.9 27.5 0.8 60.1 57.7 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.5 26.2 1.3 65.0 62.2 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.0 26.2 26.3 1.6 67.8 64.8 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.6 26.2 1.4 67.6 63.4 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 26.4 25.8 26.9 1.5 67.4 63.7 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 26.4 26.9 26.9 2.2 75.9 69.6 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.4 23.8 1.3 64.7 61.2 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.7 27.5 1.1 63.0 59.9 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------