***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 24.2 26.8 28.1 0.2 50.8 51.9 25.4 26.8 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.1 26.1 27.5 -0.4 44.9 45.3 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 24.3 26.2 28.0 -0.3 45.9 47.7 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.0 20.6 26.2 0.9 61.5 58.9 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 25.3 27.3 26.4 -0.2 46.4 48.2 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.1 27.2 24.8 0.5 56.4 56.0 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 24.0 26.5 27.4 -0.4 44.3 45.2 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.7 15.6 24.7 -0.3 44.8 46.8 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 24.8 26.8 27.1 0.0 48.7 49.9 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.8 26.8 25.5 0.1 50.0 50.5 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.6 26.6 26.5 -0.6 41.0 44.3 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.1 26.0 26.0 -0.5 41.0 45.0 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.5 27.1 26.2 -0.4 42.7 46.1 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 24.5 25.7 25.6 -0.9 38.3 41.3 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.2 28.4 0.8 58.7 58.3 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.8 28.0 26.4 -0.2 45.4 47.8 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.3 25.4 26.8 -0.6 41.4 43.0 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.8 25.7 24.4 -0.2 45.9 48.3 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 24.1 26.1 27.6 -0.5 43.5 44.4 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 19.9 22.0 22.3 -0.4 42.9 45.5 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 24.6 26.9 27.6 -0.1 48.6 48.9 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 24.1 25.4 26.7 -0.8 38.1 41.1 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 24.3 25.6 27.4 -0.9 38.8 41.6 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 24.1 26.1 26.2 -0.4 44.0 46.2 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 24.2 26.6 26.7 0.2 50.8 51.7 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 25.5 26.7 25.9 -0.2 42.4 47.3 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.1 26.7 27.3 0.2 52.0 52.6 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.8 28.1 27.2 0.8 60.3 58.4 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.7 23.4 -0.5 42.7 45.4 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.9 26.3 27.8 -0.3 46.4 46.7 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------