***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 30.3 30.5 30.1 1.2 67.0 64.8 28.2 28.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.9 29.3 0.1 58.0 54.0 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.3 30.0 29.9 0.7 61.9 60.2 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 24.5 25.3 28.1 2.3 78.3 74.8 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.2 30.9 28.4 0.9 62.7 61.9 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.4 30.6 26.9 1.8 72.3 70.9 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.7 29.0 0.0 54.6 53.1 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 19.2 19.4 26.8 1.2 65.0 63.9 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.8 29.9 29.2 1.0 64.8 63.3 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.6 30.0 27.6 1.4 68.7 66.8 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 29.9 30.3 28.7 0.5 57.8 57.1 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.2 27.9 0.8 60.9 59.4 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.8 28.7 0.8 61.2 59.7 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.2 27.5 -0.2 52.5 51.9 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.2 31.3 30.8 1.7 70.0 69.4 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 31.0 31.8 28.6 0.9 61.8 60.9 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.8 28.1 -0.4 49.2 47.8 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 28.2 28.8 26.3 1.1 65.9 63.6 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.8 29.4 0.1 58.2 54.1 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 25.6 25.6 24.7 1.2 65.1 63.7 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.2 29.8 0.9 64.6 62.8 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.5 27.9 -0.7 47.4 45.5 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.5 29.2 -0.1 54.4 51.4 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.0 28.3 0.6 62.8 59.3 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.5 28.9 1.1 65.1 63.4 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 30.1 30.2 27.8 1.1 60.7 61.1 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 29.8 30.0 29.4 1.2 67.4 64.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.5 31.8 29.3 2.1 75.2 72.8 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.6 24.7 25.6 0.9 63.9 62.0 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.9 29.1 29.6 0.4 60.3 57.2 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------