***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.5 17.1 0.5 69.1 60.5 13.0 13.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 12.3 13.2 16.5 0.2 62.1 55.9 12.8 13.2 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.8 17.2 0.4 66.7 59.1 14.8 15.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.1 14.9 0.9 78.9 70.4 10.1 10.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.3 14.9 0.4 68.1 60.7 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 11.6 11.9 13.1 0.9 79.3 70.9 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.5 16.6 0.2 60.6 54.4 13.1 13.4 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.1 12.8 0.5 72.3 64.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 0.6 72.7 64.0 12.7 13.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.4 13.5 0.6 75.2 66.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.7 14.4 0.3 61.7 57.9 11.9 12.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.3 11.5 13.7 0.4 67.1 61.2 10.4 10.8 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.4 13.0 0.4 65.5 60.1 11.4 11.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.0 13.9 14.6 0.3 66.8 58.4 13.2 13.6 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.8 16.6 0.9 79.8 70.9 13.4 14.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.9 13.8 13.8 0.5 66.6 61.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.9 16.1 0.1 58.5 53.3 13.4 13.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 11.8 12.0 12.6 0.5 74.2 65.1 10.8 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.4 16.6 0.2 61.3 55.4 12.9 13.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.0 10.7 0.5 69.9 64.2 7.0 7.6 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.1 16.2 0.5 70.7 61.5 12.5 12.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.8 16.1 0.0 54.4 51.4 12.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.8 16.5 0.1 58.0 53.2 12.3 12.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.6 14.6 0.4 71.5 62.4 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.4 16.0 0.5 71.6 61.9 12.6 13.0 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.6 12.7 0.5 70.8 63.8 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.0 13.9 16.5 0.5 71.5 62.0 12.8 13.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.8 15.3 1.0 80.0 71.4 11.1 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.3 12.0 0.5 71.6 63.8 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.8 16.9 0.3 63.1 56.7 13.3 13.7 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------