***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.1 15.4 0.3 52.4 53.1 10.3 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.4 14.9 0.1 50.0 51.8 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.0 15.5 0.3 52.6 53.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.4 13.1 0.7 60.2 57.2 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 12.9 0.3 54.5 53.5 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.7 11.5 0.7 60.0 57.4 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.3 15.0 0.1 49.4 51.4 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 11.1 0.3 53.2 54.1 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 13.1 0.3 55.3 54.4 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.1 11.7 0.4 54.2 54.6 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 12.5 0.3 53.8 53.0 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.8 0.3 54.6 54.2 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.4 11.0 0.4 55.9 54.8 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.8 12.8 0.1 49.1 51.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.4 14.5 0.8 63.1 59.5 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.3 11.9 0.5 58.2 55.5 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.8 14.6 0.1 49.5 51.8 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 10.2 10.8 0.3 53.3 54.7 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.7 15.0 0.1 51.1 51.7 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.0 8.8 0.3 53.7 54.2 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.6 14.5 0.3 53.8 53.3 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.2 14.5 0.1 51.5 51.5 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.6 11.1 14.9 0.0 51.1 50.8 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.7 12.8 0.3 53.4 54.0 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 14.1 0.4 56.0 54.1 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.1 11.1 0.6 60.8 57.6 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.0 14.8 0.4 54.9 54.3 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.5 13.4 0.8 63.2 59.2 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.3 10.3 0.3 52.3 53.5 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.0 15.2 0.2 50.6 51.9 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------