***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 12.9 14.4 17.5 0.2 56.3 52.9 12.8 14.0 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.7 16.8 -0.1 49.5 49.4 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.0 17.5 0.0 51.6 50.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.0 15.3 0.7 64.9 60.9 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.3 12.8 15.4 0.2 54.3 54.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.6 13.5 0.8 66.0 63.8 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.7 16.9 -0.1 48.9 49.1 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 7.2 13.1 0.3 56.6 55.5 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.5 14.1 15.6 0.4 58.5 57.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.1 14.0 0.4 58.6 57.8 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.6 15.1 0.2 54.4 54.0 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 10.8 12.0 14.1 0.2 55.5 54.0 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.4 13.8 0.4 59.0 58.3 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.0 14.9 -0.1 47.7 50.1 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.0 17.3 0.9 69.5 64.1 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.5 14.5 0.4 56.6 56.9 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.1 14.2 16.3 -0.2 49.0 48.0 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.5 13.0 0.3 53.1 55.1 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.6 16.9 -0.2 47.9 48.4 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.7 11.0 0.1 50.9 52.7 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.9 16.7 0.3 56.8 54.8 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.9 16.3 -0.4 44.5 44.9 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.9 16.8 -0.3 44.4 46.1 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 12.9 14.2 15.1 0.2 52.4 53.6 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.6 14.4 16.5 0.3 56.0 54.7 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 13.3 0.5 58.9 58.1 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.4 14.6 17.0 0.3 57.2 54.3 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.6 15.9 0.9 68.3 63.2 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.1 12.3 0.1 50.2 53.1 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.8 17.3 0.0 50.8 50.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------