***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.6 18.6 0.5 59.5 58.0 14.9 15.2 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 18.0 0.1 55.3 53.0 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.8 18.6 0.2 55.2 54.9 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.5 16.8 1.1 70.2 68.2 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.6 16.7 0.2 51.6 54.9 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.4 14.3 0.7 64.6 63.5 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 18.0 0.0 51.8 50.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.2 14.4 0.6 59.1 61.1 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.0 16.9 0.4 52.7 57.6 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.1 15.2 0.6 58.0 61.0 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.5 16.2 -0.1 45.1 47.2 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.8 15.5 0.4 54.3 56.8 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.8 14.8 -0.2 39.9 44.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.5 16.3 0.2 53.2 55.5 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.2 18.6 0.7 58.9 61.5 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.2 15.6 0.0 45.1 48.0 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.6 17.5 0.0 51.6 50.0 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.9 14.5 0.5 58.0 59.5 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 18.1 0.1 54.2 53.2 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 9.4 9.4 12.8 0.6 63.7 62.3 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.3 17.8 0.2 50.8 55.1 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.3 17.7 -0.1 50.0 48.7 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.4 18.1 0.0 50.5 51.2 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.1 16.5 0.3 55.1 56.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 17.8 0.4 55.5 57.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.8 14.0 0.2 49.9 52.2 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.5 18.1 0.5 58.8 58.6 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.9 17.1 0.9 64.6 64.3 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.3 13.8 0.5 61.0 62.5 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.7 18.4 0.2 56.9 54.0 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------