***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 62.7 37.3 35.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 23.7 33.2 22.2 68.8 38.2 34.1 28.9 45.5 58.0 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 27.9 36.5 21.5 67.0 39.5 35.3 33.9 56.4 66.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 33.8 50.9 22.5 66.3 45.3 37.0 48.0 56.9 70.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.2 46.8 24.3 73.5 48.2 39.5 26.8 46.9 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 29.2 37.8 31.4 73.8 45.8 37.7 26.1 43.7 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 25.0 31.7 22.0 66.9 40.2 34.0 29.2 38.1 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 51.0 68.3 30.5 82.7 51.0 40.9 52.2 67.5 91.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 30.2 40.8 21.8 65.5 42.3 35.2 33.0 45.1 61.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 31.7 39.3 28.4 74.3 45.3 37.6 27.0 44.3 70.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 28.8 45.6 24.0 78.4 50.9 39.6 29.4 45.5 60.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 25.8 37.2 25.2 84.1 53.7 41.3 27.1 36.5 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.7 44.8 27.4 78.5 49.9 39.1 36.7 44.8 54.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 35.8 56.7 31.7 79.0 43.4 36.7 41.5 59.3 83.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 17.4 24.3 21.2 70.4 48.8 40.7 18.7 28.5 45.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.7 47.4 25.3 77.0 49.2 38.6 31.4 48.2 60.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 28.8 42.9 22.7 70.3 39.7 34.5 41.2 46.2 55.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 36.7 37.8 35.3 78.6 44.6 39.5 32.9 49.1 74.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 29.0 34.1 22.6 70.0 37.7 34.1 29.5 49.6 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 42.5 53.1 41.4 82.2 45.3 41.0 46.4 55.8 80.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 22.8 31.6 19.1 61.0 37.5 34.2 27.0 48.2 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 32.3 46.7 23.8 71.7 39.3 35.1 38.6 53.3 65.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 26.6 31.6 23.8 71.9 38.1 33.3 29.0 50.3 66.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 36.7 51.9 30.0 76.8 42.7 37.9 38.9 56.3 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 24.8 43.6 23.3 62.5 39.9 35.2 37.7 51.2 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 35.4 31.3 24.7 82.1 51.1 42.2 24.5 30.6 44.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 25.3 45.4 23.3 63.0 37.7 35.3 35.8 51.3 61.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.9 36.9 24.7 76.2 51.2 41.8 24.2 36.5 47.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 61.1 76.3 38.6 80.4 44.3 40.1 53.1 89.9 108.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 25.3 28.6 21.5 66.4 37.8 34.1 27.0 44.0 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------