***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 59.2 61.9 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.2 17.0 4.9 65.0 62.9 47.0 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.6 4.5 55.8 58.1 45.0 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.0 18.4 5.0 54.4 64.1 46.6 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.7 13.7 5.2 58.8 62.8 46.9 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.2 12.5 8.3 75.3 68.0 50.5 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.4 4.9 65.4 62.2 45.9 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 23.8 7.6 80.1 65.4 47.8 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.7 5.0 57.8 60.3 46.0 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 13.6 6.6 67.9 61.2 46.3 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.8 15.9 5.8 71.7 66.1 47.2 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.8 14.8 6.7 85.6 69.5 48.8 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.0 15.8 7.4 82.2 69.7 49.3 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.4 13.4 6.6 66.2 56.0 44.9 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.8 13.1 4.9 61.5 68.9 48.2 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.4 6.6 75.8 68.6 48.4 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.1 21.3 4.7 62.7 62.9 47.6 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.8 8.0 68.7 56.6 46.5 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.8 4.8 62.9 61.6 45.8 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.1 10.4 78.1 60.0 48.2 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.7 18.2 4.3 54.6 60.4 45.6 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.1 21.2 5.2 68.7 65.3 48.5 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.9 17.9 4.9 61.2 58.4 44.2 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.9 6.4 62.8 55.3 45.1 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.6 19.8 5.2 56.2 59.9 47.2 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.3 8.9 7.1 93.2 71.1 50.1 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 21.8 5.2 60.8 61.3 47.7 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 11.6 5.6 63.3 68.8 47.9 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.0 8.9 71.6 56.8 46.9 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.0 4.8 63.6 61.8 46.7 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------