***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.4 64.4 56.8 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.4 5.1 6.1 73.1 58.7 37.8 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.3 5.6 70.3 58.3 41.8 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.7 3.8 45.7 51.9 39.1 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.9 4.5 53.3 55.0 38.9 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 6.1 53.7 53.9 39.0 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.7 6.4 74.0 59.6 39.2 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.0 19.9 5.7 58.1 53.9 37.8 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.5 4.5 53.1 55.9 37.5 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.6 5.6 55.7 52.4 36.9 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 11.4 4.3 56.3 55.9 38.2 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.6 4.4 57.7 57.6 39.3 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.7 12.0 4.9 53.5 53.9 38.0 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.2 14.6 8.4 83.4 59.7 41.4 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.0 2.7 2.8 41.1 55.7 41.8 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.1 4.4 53.8 55.5 37.9 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.2 6.3 79.6 58.6 37.9 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.8 15.2 7.5 63.0 53.9 39.2 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.9 5.9 72.4 58.9 38.5 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 5.4 15.7 8.4 60.7 50.4 38.5 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.6 4.3 54.5 56.7 40.7 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.1 12.3 6.4 78.9 58.7 39.1 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.6 6.1 75.5 59.8 40.3 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.1 7.3 75.2 58.9 41.8 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.1 5.3 54.9 54.8 39.6 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.6 4.2 53.1 57.1 40.9 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 5.8 5.9 60.3 55.1 40.7 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.3 3.6 46.7 54.5 40.8 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.2 17.0 8.4 65.4 53.2 39.4 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.9 6.0 70.9 59.1 39.2 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------