***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 51.2 53.8 40.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.0 12.8 5.8 73.0 61.2 41.5 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.9 16.1 4.7 63.0 56.0 38.7 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.0 17.2 4.4 54.6 56.4 37.6 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.1 11.5 4.8 59.0 57.9 36.1 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.1 13.0 8.4 77.6 60.6 43.8 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 8.6 5.6 68.8 56.7 41.3 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.9 21.3 6.3 70.8 55.7 40.2 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 4.4 8.4 4.6 55.7 51.8 32.7 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.4 13.3 5.8 63.0 52.3 34.5 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.6 14.9 4.3 60.0 57.4 38.8 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.4 5.1 72.6 59.9 43.4 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.8 11.4 6.6 78.9 62.0 40.1 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.7 14.6 8.6 84.5 57.3 38.4 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.0 4.2 4.0 54.9 59.3 40.8 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.0 17.0 5.3 65.7 59.1 40.2 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 5.1 13.6 6.1 73.0 57.8 42.5 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 5.3 13.2 8.2 74.8 51.3 37.6 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.0 11.6 6.0 76.4 63.2 41.6 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.4 17.0 10.3 82.9 56.1 41.3 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.4 7.2 3.7 49.7 52.0 31.8 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.3 12.2 6.5 78.0 60.4 44.2 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 13.1 6.3 77.7 60.9 39.2 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.9 11.6 7.1 72.7 52.8 36.8 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.5 13.3 4.8 54.7 55.4 37.7 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.5 17.1 6.0 90.0 64.7 44.5 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.7 4.9 54.6 54.0 39.6 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.9 10.7 4.7 59.5 58.6 42.4 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.4 21.8 9.6 80.5 56.4 39.1 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.7 10.2 5.4 68.7 57.9 41.3 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------