***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 74.5 62.6 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.8 5.4 64.0 59.2 39.9 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.3 11.2 6.7 78.4 61.2 46.0 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 19.4 9.3 111.2 73.8 51.0 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 2.8 7.0 9.9 127.8 73.9 54.2 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.8 8.6 8.7 91.9 64.8 45.7 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.9 5.1 59.4 58.6 41.4 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.4 19.0 10.9 123.8 70.3 52.2 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.2 8.6 7.8 97.3 66.3 42.7 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 11.2 10.3 112.3 68.1 48.0 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 3.6 9.7 9.5 126.2 71.8 53.4 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 3.2 8.8 8.9 121.5 72.3 52.5 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 3.6 7.3 8.4 101.7 68.4 48.6 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.6 16.8 8.1 82.0 61.9 42.5 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 11.1 9.4 121.1 74.6 56.1 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.8 7.1 8.9 114.9 70.2 50.0 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 10.2 5.5 65.6 62.8 43.2 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.6 11.6 112.0 67.1 51.1 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.2 5.9 68.2 58.3 40.6 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 19.8 12.3 113.8 68.9 50.2 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.6 7.7 6.8 83.8 61.8 43.3 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.4 5.8 62.3 55.4 39.7 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.7 6.5 73.1 58.0 41.9 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.2 9.2 98.2 63.2 48.6 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 4.3 6.2 8.0 83.3 64.7 50.6 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.4 6.7 7.5 93.5 66.6 43.4 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 7.6 8.2 7.3 75.8 62.0 52.4 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 3.6 14.4 10.7 135.4 77.6 60.2 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 19.8 11.7 108.6 66.5 50.5 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.3 5.4 62.6 56.5 41.3 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------