***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 28.5 1.9 83.2 78.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 27.1 27.8 28.3 1.7 81.0 75.0 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 27.0 27.9 28.6 1.9 83.2 78.2 25.5 26.3 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 20.4 20.6 26.4 1.3 73.5 69.4 18.5 19.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 27.5 27.7 26.7 1.5 76.3 72.7 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 26.4 26.7 24.3 1.3 73.9 71.2 24.9 25.4 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 27.0 27.5 28.1 1.6 80.8 74.8 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 16.0 16.2 24.8 1.4 76.2 72.3 14.4 15.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 27.1 27.3 27.2 1.7 78.2 75.5 25.6 26.4 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 27.1 27.5 25.7 1.6 77.6 74.5 25.1 25.9 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 27.6 27.8 26.4 1.6 76.8 74.4 25.4 26.6 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 27.1 27.5 26.0 1.6 76.6 73.6 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 27.7 28.1 25.8 1.6 75.9 73.7 25.8 26.7 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 27.1 27.7 26.7 1.8 82.6 77.1 25.5 26.1 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 27.9 27.6 27.3 1.3 71.0 69.9 26.2 27.0 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 28.5 28.7 26.2 1.6 76.5 74.0 26.5 27.6 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 26.6 27.2 27.8 1.6 80.9 74.0 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 25.9 26.1 24.7 1.6 78.7 74.6 24.4 25.3 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 27.1 27.8 28.5 1.8 82.4 76.5 25.3 26.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 22.2 22.5 22.4 1.2 73.9 69.5 20.4 21.4 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 26.9 27.2 28.0 1.7 79.6 75.5 25.5 26.4 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 27.1 27.6 27.8 1.7 82.3 74.8 25.0 25.7 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 26.9 28.0 28.4 2.0 84.2 78.6 25.2 25.7 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 26.5 27.2 26.7 1.8 81.9 77.5 25.2 25.6 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 27.5 28.0 27.0 1.7 80.4 75.0 25.4 26.2 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 27.3 27.5 25.4 1.2 70.2 68.3 25.7 26.2 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 26.8 27.9 27.6 1.8 82.5 77.1 25.3 25.8 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 28.0 27.8 26.9 1.3 71.7 69.8 26.3 27.2 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 21.6 21.8 23.7 1.5 77.8 73.9 20.0 20.9 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 27.0 27.4 28.5 1.8 81.7 76.0 25.3 25.9 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------