***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 27.1 2.4 74.3 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 26.9 27.5 27.0 2.3 76.1 70.2 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 26.5 27.0 27.2 2.5 75.2 71.1 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 19.6 19.7 25.1 1.9 70.7 66.2 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 26.6 26.6 25.3 2.1 72.0 67.6 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 25.3 25.8 23.1 2.0 73.4 67.2 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 26.3 26.9 26.8 2.2 75.5 69.8 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.3 23.6 2.1 72.5 67.4 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.7 25.7 2.3 72.9 69.2 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 25.8 25.9 24.4 2.3 73.0 68.6 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.3 25.0 2.2 72.8 68.6 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.7 24.7 2.2 71.8 67.7 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.6 24.2 2.1 71.2 67.1 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.5 25.4 2.5 75.6 70.4 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.9 27.2 25.6 1.9 69.7 66.4 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 27.0 27.2 24.7 2.1 71.7 67.7 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 25.9 26.7 26.5 2.2 76.1 69.4 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.3 23.6 2.3 73.5 68.6 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 26.3 27.1 27.2 2.4 76.5 70.9 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 21.3 21.3 21.2 1.9 72.5 66.2 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 26.5 26.6 26.6 2.4 72.7 69.7 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.5 26.9 26.5 2.2 74.8 69.6 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.1 27.1 2.6 77.3 71.9 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.4 25.4 2.5 75.5 70.3 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.7 25.5 2.2 72.8 69.1 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.4 26.2 24.0 1.8 68.2 64.9 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 26.3 26.9 26.2 2.3 73.6 70.0 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.9 26.7 25.4 1.9 69.1 66.2 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.1 20.5 22.5 2.2 72.5 68.2 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 26.4 27.1 27.2 2.4 74.9 70.5 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------