***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 28.3 2.6 82.4 75.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 26.8 28.4 28.0 2.3 80.9 72.9 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.9 28.4 2.6 82.6 75.8 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.8 19.4 26.5 2.0 75.9 70.8 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.7 26.6 2.3 79.6 73.0 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.1 25.8 24.4 2.2 80.0 73.0 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.6 27.8 2.2 79.6 72.6 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 15.0 16.9 25.0 2.5 82.8 74.6 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 26.6 27.8 27.1 2.6 82.4 75.1 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 26.2 27.6 25.7 2.6 82.6 75.0 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 26.9 28.5 26.4 2.6 83.2 75.4 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 25.9 27.8 26.2 2.6 82.9 75.3 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 26.6 27.6 25.7 2.5 80.7 74.2 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.8 26.6 2.7 83.7 75.5 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.7 27.2 27.0 2.0 74.9 70.9 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 27.1 28.0 26.1 2.5 80.2 74.3 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 26.5 28.3 27.5 2.2 80.8 71.6 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 25.3 27.0 24.8 2.6 81.8 74.8 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 26.7 28.5 28.3 2.5 82.0 74.1 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 21.6 23.2 22.5 2.3 80.3 72.2 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 26.9 28.3 27.8 2.5 82.3 75.0 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 27.1 28.7 27.6 2.3 82.2 72.4 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 26.9 28.3 28.2 2.7 83.2 75.8 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 26.3 27.8 26.6 2.7 84.0 76.2 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 26.9 28.2 26.8 2.4 79.5 74.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.8 25.4 2.0 76.6 70.9 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 26.9 28.4 27.4 2.5 81.3 74.8 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 26.5 26.9 26.8 2.1 76.1 71.1 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 20.9 22.3 23.8 2.5 81.5 74.1 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 26.4 28.0 28.3 2.4 80.8 73.8 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------