***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 2.1 79.0 71.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 27.6 28.2 28.8 1.8 77.9 68.6 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.3 28.0 29.1 2.1 78.5 71.3 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 20.5 20.7 27.2 1.3 69.0 65.6 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.5 27.2 1.5 71.0 66.8 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 27.5 27.8 25.1 1.3 70.4 66.4 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.4 28.0 28.6 1.8 78.1 68.5 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 16.8 17.2 25.4 1.5 71.3 66.0 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 27.8 28.1 27.6 1.8 73.8 68.9 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 27.7 27.9 26.2 1.7 74.4 67.7 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 28.0 28.4 26.9 1.7 74.4 68.6 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 27.7 28.3 26.7 1.6 72.8 67.5 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 29.0 28.9 26.3 1.6 71.1 67.1 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 27.6 28.0 27.2 2.0 77.2 70.0 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 28.6 29.0 27.9 1.5 70.6 67.7 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 29.4 29.5 26.7 1.6 72.4 67.8 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.7 27.0 28.2 1.8 75.7 68.3 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 26.7 27.0 25.3 1.7 74.9 67.7 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 27.4 28.1 29.0 1.9 78.9 69.5 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.5 23.4 22.9 1.2 67.9 63.3 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 27.7 28.0 28.5 1.9 74.7 69.6 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.1 27.4 28.3 1.8 75.0 68.6 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 27.6 28.3 28.8 2.1 79.5 70.7 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.3 27.9 27.2 2.0 78.2 70.5 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 27.8 28.2 27.5 1.8 74.6 70.0 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 28.5 28.4 25.9 1.0 68.6 62.5 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 27.5 28.0 28.1 2.0 77.1 71.0 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 28.5 28.6 27.5 1.4 70.2 66.3 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 22.6 22.5 24.2 1.6 74.2 66.9 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 27.4 28.0 29.0 1.9 78.4 69.6 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------