***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 29.7 0.6 60.5 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.0 29.4 0.3 58.5 56.8 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.4 29.7 0.6 59.1 58.6 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.6 21.9 26.9 -0.2 44.2 48.4 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.2 29.9 27.6 0.0 50.0 51.2 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.4 29.1 24.7 -0.2 46.2 46.9 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.7 29.0 29.2 0.3 57.6 56.6 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 18.1 17.5 25.2 -0.4 43.5 46.2 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 29.7 29.5 28.4 0.2 53.5 53.8 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.5 28.9 26.3 -0.1 47.6 50.0 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 30.0 28.7 27.2 0.0 46.1 50.3 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 29.2 28.4 26.5 -0.1 46.2 49.3 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.3 30.3 26.9 0.3 51.2 53.0 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.5 27.8 0.1 54.5 54.8 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.2 29.8 28.8 0.0 47.4 49.9 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.9 30.5 27.4 0.3 50.0 53.4 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.2 29.3 28.9 0.2 58.7 56.4 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.0 25.3 -0.2 44.9 49.7 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.9 29.6 0.4 59.9 58.4 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.3 22.9 -0.7 42.3 44.0 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.4 29.1 0.1 54.0 52.9 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.9 29.3 28.9 0.3 58.6 57.7 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 29.4 29.3 29.5 0.6 62.6 60.3 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.4 27.5 0.1 50.9 53.4 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.8 28.1 0.2 55.2 54.1 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 30.1 29.5 26.2 -0.1 46.5 48.2 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.5 28.8 0.4 59.0 57.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.4 29.6 27.8 -0.1 45.0 49.0 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.7 22.7 24.4 -0.3 45.1 48.4 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.9 29.7 0.4 59.6 57.9 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------