***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 17.0 0.9 78.3 72.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.6 13.7 16.8 0.8 75.2 68.8 12.8 13.2 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.1 17.0 1.0 79.5 74.1 14.8 15.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.2 14.7 0.4 60.7 60.4 10.1 10.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.3 14.6 0.6 66.1 65.3 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 11.5 11.4 13.0 0.7 66.4 65.7 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.8 16.9 0.8 77.0 68.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.1 12.9 0.7 71.7 68.5 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.6 15.2 0.8 74.1 70.8 12.7 13.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.4 13.5 0.8 73.9 70.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.1 14.4 0.9 76.2 71.6 11.9 12.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.5 13.8 0.8 73.9 70.7 10.4 10.8 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.5 13.2 0.7 67.4 67.9 11.4 11.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.2 15.3 1.0 80.5 74.5 13.2 13.6 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.3 15.7 0.6 62.4 63.7 13.4 14.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.8 14.0 0.8 71.2 69.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.1 16.2 0.6 71.9 65.5 13.4 13.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 12.0 12.7 0.7 72.9 69.9 10.8 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 13.7 13.8 16.8 0.9 76.7 71.7 12.9 13.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 8.1 8.0 11.1 0.6 69.4 66.7 7.0 7.6 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.1 16.2 0.8 72.3 70.0 12.5 12.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.1 13.2 16.4 0.8 74.8 69.6 12.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 13.1 13.3 16.8 1.1 80.0 76.3 12.3 12.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 13.5 13.8 14.9 0.9 79.2 73.7 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.3 15.5 0.7 68.5 67.1 12.6 13.0 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.3 13.1 0.5 61.5 62.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.1 16.2 0.8 74.8 70.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.9 15.2 0.6 62.5 62.9 11.1 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.8 12.3 0.9 78.8 73.2 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 13.9 13.9 17.1 0.9 76.9 70.8 13.3 13.7 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------