***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 1.5 79.0 69.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.7 15.7 1.4 77.4 68.3 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.5 15.8 1.7 77.9 71.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.4 13.4 1.1 70.4 67.0 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.2 13.4 1.3 74.2 70.0 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.4 11.6 1.2 71.5 67.4 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.4 15.7 1.3 76.0 67.5 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.8 11.8 1.4 74.9 71.6 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.5 13.9 1.5 77.4 71.4 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.1 12.3 1.5 75.8 72.1 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.8 13.1 1.5 79.5 72.9 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.6 12.6 1.5 78.3 72.2 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.5 12.1 11.9 1.3 76.0 68.9 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 13.5 14.1 14.1 1.7 78.8 74.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.2 14.2 1.2 73.7 67.6 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.4 12.7 1.4 77.5 70.6 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.5 15.0 1.2 74.6 65.8 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 11.4 12.1 11.7 1.5 75.7 72.7 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.7 13.2 15.8 1.6 77.8 70.3 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.7 10.2 1.3 73.6 69.3 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 12.7 13.2 15.0 1.5 78.1 70.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.6 15.2 1.3 74.9 68.0 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.2 15.7 1.8 79.0 73.6 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 13.1 13.4 13.8 1.7 76.7 74.2 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.6 14.2 1.4 75.4 68.9 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.3 12.1 1.2 73.9 67.4 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.7 15.0 1.4 76.4 69.4 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.9 13.8 1.2 72.2 67.7 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 10.8 10.9 11.2 1.5 75.6 73.4 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.7 16.0 1.5 78.1 69.3 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------