***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 1.2 78.3 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.3 16.2 0.9 75.2 64.2 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.2 16.2 16.3 1.2 79.6 67.2 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.5 14.2 0.7 68.8 60.3 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.2 14.0 0.8 72.5 62.3 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.1 12.5 0.9 74.9 65.1 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.1 16.2 0.9 73.9 63.1 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 6.6 7.0 12.3 0.8 70.5 64.3 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.2 14.5 1.0 77.1 64.7 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.9 12.8 0.8 72.9 64.0 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.5 13.8 1.0 74.6 66.8 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.0 13.3 1.0 74.0 67.5 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 11.7 11.7 12.8 1.0 75.7 67.7 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.6 14.1 14.6 1.1 77.8 67.8 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.8 15.2 0.9 71.3 63.9 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.3 13.5 1.0 75.9 67.3 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.7 15.5 0.7 70.8 61.2 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 11.6 11.6 12.1 0.8 73.0 64.5 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.7 16.2 1.1 77.8 66.2 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.8 10.7 0.8 67.7 63.1 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.2 15.6 1.0 77.8 65.5 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.9 15.7 0.9 74.1 63.7 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.8 16.1 1.2 80.6 68.9 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.2 14.3 1.1 76.8 67.4 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.2 14.9 1.0 75.2 65.3 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.8 12.8 0.8 71.4 63.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.5 15.7 1.1 77.1 66.2 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.4 14.6 0.8 70.6 62.4 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 11.0 11.7 0.9 73.3 66.0 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.4 14.0 16.5 1.0 76.6 65.4 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------