***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 17.3 0.6 59.9 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 17.3 0.7 66.7 58.8 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.6 17.3 0.7 63.0 59.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.3 15.2 0.2 54.2 52.8 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.8 15.1 0.3 57.3 55.0 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.9 13.5 0.4 56.8 56.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.2 15.1 17.3 0.6 65.4 58.5 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.2 13.3 0.3 55.5 54.7 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.1 15.4 0.4 56.5 56.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.9 13.8 0.3 53.8 54.7 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 14.8 0.7 62.6 59.6 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 14.3 0.5 61.6 57.7 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.5 13.8 0.5 60.9 56.9 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.1 15.5 0.6 63.9 58.7 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 16.1 0.3 58.2 55.1 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 14.6 0.6 64.1 59.1 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 16.6 0.5 59.8 56.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.5 13.0 0.3 54.7 54.5 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.2 15.3 17.2 0.7 67.9 59.6 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.7 11.5 0.2 50.7 52.3 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.9 16.4 0.4 57.0 56.4 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.0 16.6 0.5 63.4 57.6 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.5 17.0 0.8 69.6 61.2 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.5 15.2 0.6 62.7 58.9 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.4 15.7 0.4 57.2 55.4 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 13.8 0.2 56.5 53.3 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.9 15.0 16.5 0.5 58.8 57.0 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.4 15.7 0.3 58.1 54.9 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.6 12.6 0.4 57.3 56.1 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.3 15.1 17.5 0.7 67.5 59.2 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------