***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 0.4 61.5 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.2 17.9 0.0 53.8 52.3 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.6 18.0 18.5 0.5 63.6 60.3 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.7 12.9 15.9 -0.2 44.9 47.0 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.5 16.1 0.0 49.5 50.2 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 12.8 12.8 14.3 0.2 54.2 53.6 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.7 18.4 0.2 59.3 56.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.7 8.9 14.3 0.3 56.2 55.3 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.5 16.9 0.4 60.5 57.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.1 15.2 0.4 59.4 57.7 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.5 15.9 0.3 56.5 55.0 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 12.7 12.9 15.1 0.3 57.3 55.8 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.4 14.5 0.1 48.8 50.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.8 16.8 0.4 62.6 58.0 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 15.8 15.6 17.4 0.0 49.0 48.9 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.3 15.4 0.2 53.7 52.8 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.5 17.5 -0.1 50.5 50.2 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.9 12.9 14.0 0.2 56.8 55.0 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.5 18.1 0.2 58.2 55.1 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.1 12.1 0.1 54.8 53.8 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.6 18.0 0.3 59.6 56.1 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.7 18.0 0.2 61.3 56.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.0 18.3 0.5 67.2 61.5 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.4 16.4 0.4 61.6 57.1 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 17.0 -0.1 50.8 49.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 13.9 13.7 13.8 -0.3 47.0 45.9 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.4 17.6 0.2 55.8 54.6 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.3 16.7 0.0 48.6 49.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.5 13.7 0.6 63.2 61.3 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.7 18.5 0.2 57.6 56.4 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------