***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 56.7 56.1 33.3 101.9 63.2 57.2 34.1 51.9 60.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 49.5 51.6 36.4 98.2 60.3 53.7 29.0 43.8 55.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 58.5 57.7 36.4 105.4 62.7 59.0 34.0 54.0 61.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 58.6 61.2 32.9 102.1 62.6 54.9 46.4 52.9 64.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 53.8 59.8 34.8 104.4 65.4 56.5 26.7 46.9 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 48.6 46.0 41.1 95.8 60.1 52.1 22.8 42.7 53.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 46.2 43.7 37.0 99.2 62.8 55.0 29.0 38.5 45.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 79.9 82.6 39.8 100.2 59.7 52.8 52.2 67.9 85.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 45.7 61.3 37.6 105.8 66.5 58.3 34.6 41.0 61.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 55.5 68.3 44.4 107.0 66.8 57.1 30.6 50.4 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 49.1 60.8 31.7 103.0 66.1 54.9 29.6 43.3 60.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 43.1 36.6 28.2 92.6 55.8 49.7 26.9 34.2 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.2 45.8 30.0 89.6 56.1 49.5 34.2 43.3 54.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 66.6 82.4 49.8 110.9 64.0 59.2 41.5 57.8 83.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 19.7 42.7 30.6 105.7 66.1 55.0 15.7 31.8 42.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 52.0 50.7 30.7 99.6 57.8 52.1 29.8 48.3 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 49.6 49.6 39.3 103.9 64.9 56.5 39.7 44.2 50.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 53.1 75.8 54.6 113.5 69.8 59.8 34.2 46.3 71.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 53.0 54.8 36.7 101.0 59.9 55.1 32.0 48.8 60.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 62.7 69.0 55.9 105.8 58.3 55.2 39.3 53.5 75.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 52.2 64.7 32.5 100.7 65.7 57.4 25.6 45.2 64.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 57.1 59.4 40.9 105.8 65.1 57.3 38.8 51.2 60.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 50.2 65.9 40.0 110.1 65.1 59.3 32.0 45.3 66.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 59.7 74.6 47.9 112.3 68.5 60.5 41.4 54.3 67.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 56.2 59.8 36.1 99.5 65.5 55.9 36.3 49.5 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 34.7 31.6 23.6 81.0 51.6 45.3 24.8 30.7 44.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 57.4 58.5 37.4 100.6 62.9 55.9 29.5 50.9 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 40.8 41.5 32.4 107.2 63.5 55.2 24.2 36.5 42.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 90.5 108.5 57.3 112.8 67.0 58.8 52.8 81.5 108.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 45.3 46.3 37.2 102.6 61.8 56.2 26.5 41.7 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------