***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.0 23.3 5.8 84.8 68.8 51.9 0.9 6.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 21.4 7.9 102.9 73.4 56.8 2.3 8.7 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.9 6.8 92.4 69.8 56.5 2.2 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 26.8 7.4 114.9 77.1 55.1 0.7 6.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.2 20.0 8.4 124.0 77.3 57.9 1.3 4.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 17.4 9.7 119.3 73.3 55.6 0.5 4.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.1 20.1 8.5 111.7 74.7 56.6 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.4 32.3 10.5 130.6 74.7 57.7 2.6 8.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.1 20.8 9.1 122.4 77.2 59.5 1.5 5.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 19.5 11.1 129.2 75.5 58.9 2.8 6.8 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.5 20.4 8.6 141.5 79.8 59.5 0.4 3.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 14.6 7.7 129.3 76.3 56.8 1.0 6.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.5 15.4 7.7 117.9 71.3 55.6 0.2 3.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 30.1 9.9 103.5 73.5 55.1 2.4 7.6 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 15.8 7.2 124.9 80.6 56.8 0.2 1.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 14.5 8.2 140.1 76.6 57.7 0.1 4.3 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 25.8 8.8 111.5 74.3 53.3 1.7 7.8 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 24.4 12.7 120.5 75.4 58.5 2.8 7.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.5 24.5 7.3 96.9 71.9 56.8 3.3 8.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 20.9 14.0 119.7 72.8 56.1 4.1 12.5 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 25.1 7.1 103.1 75.1 56.5 2.7 8.1 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.8 21.8 8.9 105.4 72.2 54.6 3.1 11.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.3 20.2 7.1 94.8 70.8 55.3 3.0 7.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.7 26.9 10.1 110.5 73.0 57.3 2.1 9.5 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.5 24.8 6.9 93.5 69.8 54.4 1.2 6.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.7 8.7 6.4 110.4 69.9 53.7 0.2 1.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 24.2 7.1 93.2 68.5 53.7 1.7 6.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 16.3 7.9 131.3 78.9 57.4 0.5 2.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 25.2 36.1 13.3 118.4 75.2 57.8 10.6 21.3 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.3 7.5 98.8 73.1 58.0 2.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------