***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.6 7.8 7.5 77.2 57.8 46.3 0.0 1.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 4.2 6.3 60.6 53.0 43.1 0.4 3.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.1 8.4 82.0 60.6 48.6 0.4 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.4 20.6 9.7 101.2 69.3 50.8 2.5 12.2 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 17.8 9.9 95.1 70.6 51.1 0.4 6.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.1 13.0 105.6 66.1 51.9 3.0 8.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.3 6.2 59.7 52.6 41.4 0.1 4.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 25.5 11.7 103.9 68.3 52.7 13.5 16.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.4 17.0 10.1 90.9 69.1 52.1 3.4 8.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 19.1 12.9 103.3 69.1 53.9 2.9 5.0 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 18.3 9.6 101.0 71.9 51.6 2.4 4.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.9 16.0 8.4 100.2 67.7 51.4 1.3 9.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.8 18.9 9.8 107.3 69.8 52.3 3.1 10.2 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 14.4 12.9 92.6 59.7 51.2 1.5 8.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.2 8.0 8.5 109.0 68.4 50.9 0.2 2.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.7 9.9 108.5 70.6 51.3 1.5 6.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.2 5.7 53.7 49.9 40.9 0.2 5.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 15.6 23.8 16.1 115.1 69.1 55.9 1.9 13.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.1 7.2 68.2 55.4 45.8 2.0 6.1 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 24.2 17.3 116.9 69.5 55.1 2.7 14.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.6 10.8 8.7 86.0 66.4 50.8 0.4 4.5 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.5 6.6 57.8 50.0 43.8 4.1 11.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.6 8.9 81.3 59.0 49.7 1.6 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.3 16.0 12.9 101.4 62.6 52.1 1.3 6.8 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 12.8 9.3 87.5 63.5 49.0 0.2 5.1 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.4 7.3 96.3 66.5 52.8 0.4 6.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.2 7.4 8.3 77.1 60.1 45.7 0.0 2.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.1 17.0 9.7 110.8 70.2 51.1 0.4 8.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.6 29.6 17.5 120.7 69.6 56.3 8.7 15.0 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.8 5.8 7.0 67.8 56.2 45.1 0.4 4.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------