***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.3 15.0 7.0 94.1 67.7 54.5 6.1 8.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.5 12.1 8.3 96.2 65.3 45.6 3.8 4.9 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.0 20.1 7.3 87.7 65.2 50.4 3.8 14.3 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 20.6 7.5 103.2 73.5 54.3 5.7 8.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.6 20.8 8.0 105.5 71.2 52.8 3.7 8.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 17.3 12.8 105.8 67.8 55.6 1.9 9.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 11.2 9.0 100.4 67.0 46.6 2.5 5.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.2 31.2 10.5 106.7 68.4 54.2 7.2 16.9 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.3 23.5 8.7 104.9 74.9 52.9 6.5 8.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.6 19.7 10.9 108.0 71.2 53.6 8.8 12.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.2 17.7 7.6 107.5 73.5 52.2 5.5 10.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.9 14.7 7.7 102.3 68.2 53.3 2.9 7.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.0 8.6 96.1 66.7 54.3 1.6 5.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.7 19.4 11.7 110.5 67.0 49.3 8.3 14.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.2 6.5 7.6 103.3 72.0 51.9 0.5 2.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.6 18.4 7.7 101.3 69.5 52.3 0.8 6.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 15.2 9.0 98.0 68.5 46.9 4.0 8.0 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 13.7 13.4 109.2 67.1 54.3 8.1 11.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.2 8.1 96.8 65.0 46.9 5.9 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 21.7 14.5 107.0 66.4 53.5 12.3 14.8 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.7 24.6 6.9 94.6 72.3 54.1 4.1 6.6 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.0 15.2 8.7 94.4 66.8 46.0 4.1 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.8 21.6 8.7 106.9 68.8 50.5 5.8 8.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.8 21.1 10.8 100.1 66.7 50.9 5.2 8.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.8 19.5 8.0 94.8 69.5 53.3 3.7 11.1 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.9 21.0 7.0 96.5 66.7 56.1 0.8 7.3 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 22.5 8.7 98.6 69.9 52.7 3.2 8.8 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 16.2 8.0 107.2 73.2 53.2 0.8 5.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 26.1 14.5 110.4 67.8 54.1 9.6 19.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.5 8.3 97.5 64.0 48.4 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------