***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 7.0 11.5 13.0 149.1 79.1 69.4 0.0 1.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 12.6 15.2 13.8 134.7 74.7 62.4 1.0 5.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.7 14.2 13.9 161.4 80.3 71.3 2.4 8.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.1 10.9 8.2 92.9 66.2 56.2 0.2 4.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 3.3 5.2 8.5 99.4 67.0 58.6 0.5 2.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.2 1.8 5.6 53.8 55.0 44.9 0.1 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.4 15.1 13.3 128.8 74.0 62.5 0.3 4.7 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 9.2 8.1 7.0 67.1 55.4 50.2 1.8 7.3 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 3.6 8.0 9.7 111.5 70.7 61.6 0.2 2.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 5.5 9.8 9.5 92.8 62.1 56.4 0.1 4.3 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 3.2 3.8 6.0 73.2 58.0 52.0 0.3 2.8 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 2.8 2.4 4.5 51.9 53.1 45.9 0.0 1.5 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 2.3 1.7 3.9 44.2 53.6 44.2 0.0 0.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 17.4 21.8 15.3 140.7 76.2 66.7 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.6 7.4 91.0 66.2 55.2 0.0 0.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.7 4.9 59.7 58.4 47.7 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.1 16.3 15.9 156.9 76.0 69.0 0.7 4.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 5.9 14.7 12.4 110.4 67.5 59.4 1.0 4.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 9.7 13.8 14.1 142.9 76.5 64.2 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 5.2 7.5 10.1 78.7 56.7 52.9 0.3 3.3 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 7.1 9.9 9.8 122.7 74.0 65.3 1.0 2.4 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.7 18.9 16.7 177.4 78.1 70.5 0.8 7.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.8 20.9 15.2 157.6 80.6 69.2 2.6 5.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 7.2 19.6 14.0 140.2 74.4 65.6 1.1 4.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 3.4 7.9 11.9 121.0 73.9 63.9 0.4 2.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 2.7 1.2 2.9 33.9 51.7 41.9 0.0 1.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 12.9 16.0 13.3 133.3 77.1 65.8 2.4 6.2 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 3.5 7.9 6.8 85.6 65.0 54.3 0.0 1.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 11.4 17.2 12.0 100.6 63.3 56.9 0.7 9.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 9.4 12.4 14.4 147.3 77.9 65.3 0.9 5.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------