***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 25.1 25.2 25.1 -1.7 25.0 26.5 25.5 26.1 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 25.2 25.1 24.9 -1.9 24.3 23.9 25.4 26.5 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 25.3 25.4 25.2 -1.7 26.0 26.6 25.5 26.3 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 18.7 18.4 23.7 -1.7 24.9 26.6 18.5 19.7 20.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 26.0 25.8 24.0 -1.4 28.1 29.8 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.2 22.8 -0.5 41.1 43.7 25.1 25.7 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 24.8 24.8 24.9 -1.8 25.5 24.4 25.0 25.9 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.8 22.8 -0.8 35.7 38.5 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 25.4 25.4 24.3 -1.5 26.8 29.1 25.8 26.4 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.2 -1.1 31.8 34.7 25.5 25.9 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.8 25.7 23.9 -1.1 32.0 35.1 25.8 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.2 23.8 -0.9 33.6 37.0 25.2 25.7 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 27.3 26.1 23.5 -0.9 33.5 37.9 26.0 27.0 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.8 -1.3 30.1 31.9 25.5 26.1 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.3 -1.9 20.4 23.9 26.3 27.2 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 26.8 26.5 23.8 -1.0 32.6 35.8 26.5 27.8 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 24.2 24.3 24.6 -1.8 24.3 24.7 24.6 25.2 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 24.6 24.6 22.5 -0.9 35.2 36.7 24.6 25.6 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 24.8 24.9 25.0 -1.8 25.3 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.1 21.1 -0.5 40.7 43.5 20.7 21.8 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 25.4 25.3 24.9 -1.6 24.9 27.1 25.7 26.5 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 24.8 24.9 24.6 -1.8 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.9 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 24.9 25.3 25.0 -1.6 27.8 27.3 25.4 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 24.9 25.1 23.8 -1.2 31.2 32.3 25.2 25.7 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 25.5 25.3 23.9 -1.6 26.2 27.7 25.6 26.3 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.0 23.6 -0.9 34.8 37.8 25.9 26.4 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 25.2 25.3 24.5 -1.5 26.4 28.1 25.4 26.0 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 26.2 25.8 24.1 -1.7 23.9 26.8 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.4 21.8 -0.7 37.7 39.9 20.1 20.9 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 25.0 25.0 25.1 -1.9 24.6 24.3 25.4 26.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------